2018 was an uneven year for our market predictions. We were right on six calls and wrong on four calls. While we were right about the general market direction, a few of our sector specific calls were off the mark. Slow But Steady Rate Rise: We expect the Fed to maintain the normalization plan and …
Friends, As we approach the end of an eventful 2018, there continues to be a steady torrent of major news stories dropping daily. From CEOs tweeting about taking their companies private, to escalating global trade wars, to bitter battles on Capitol Hill, the financial markets have had a lot to digest. Though the news can …
Dear Friends, Over the past year and a half, trying to absorb news has felt a bit like drinking water from a fire hose. Like many of you, we have steadily become more concerned and simultaneously more accustomed to the chaos being created by the current US administration. While the actions of our government have deviated from the …
As we noted in our 2017 year-end review, we expect 2018 to be a tough year for the domestic stock market. Rising interest rates and valuation concerns are going to be the major story for investors this year. Stock market valuations remain elevated, with the S&P 500 currently priced at 24 times last year’s earnings. …
That’s what I read into the comprehensive analysis of individual income tax returns by Bakija, Cole and Heim. The Washington Post has coverage of their work. The work is a damning indictment of the manner in which corporate boards have abdicated their responsibility towards shareholders to rein in excess corporate compensation. The compensation process is run …
Dear Friends, We rarely deliver a mid-quarter email, but the last two days of large drops in the equities markets and recent conversations with clients have prompted us to provide this update. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 666 points (2.6%), which was followed by a 1,175 point drop (4.6%) today. The S&P500 …
Dear Friends, We trust you’ve had a wonderful holiday season and a good start to the New Year. As we dig ourselves out from one of the first winter storms and a biting cold front, we have been considering the year ahead and what it may bring for investors. 2017 ended with a remarkable rally …
2017 was an uneven year for our market predictions. We were right on five calls, half right on one call and wrong on four calls. Continued bullishness and investor support for the Trump administration (despite abysmal poll numbers) torpedoed three of our calls. ? Fed stays the course: We expect the Federal Reserve will continue …
We trust you’ve had a restful and enjoyable summer. This was a difficult hurricane season for many of our fellow Americans, especially those in Puerto Rico and across the South. A number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes made landfall in the US, causing enormous damage in Puerto Rico, Houston, Florida and the Virgin Islands. …
Dear Friends, The 2nd quarter saw the Fed continue its strategy of withdrawing stimulus from the US economy. Since December 2016, the Fed has raised rates three times, bringing the target rate up to 1.25%. Their most recent statements suggest the target rate will continue to rise if unemployment and inflation stay relatively stable. There …
Dear Friends, The first quarter of 2017 was full of eventful news for markets. We saw a Fed rate hike, record low unemployment rates, all time highs for US equity markets and a new administration sworn in, with Republicans now in full control of Congress. In our view, this likely marks an inflection point for …
Dear Friends, We hope you have had a good start to the New Year and wish you the best for 2017. As always, in our first letter of the year we have attached a review our 2016 investment themes and a list of our investment themes for 2017. The fourth quarter of 2016 revolved around …
Fed stays the course: We expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates as stated. We expect the Fed-Funds rate to rise above 1.5% over the course of 2017. Equities Caution: We continue to be cautious on US equities, as we have been for the past several years. S&P 500 is priced at over …
This was a difficult year for our prognostications. We were wrong (or early) on core calls including rising interest rates and an equities bear market, that undercut many other themes that relied on those predictions. Our score was 3.5 out of 10. × Fed stays the course: We expect short term rates to rise by …
Many motives have been advanced for the great Indian demonetization of 2016. These include reducing the informal/untaxed “black-money” economy, removing counterfeit notes from circulation, making terrorist financing more difficult etc. Might there be another, unstated, reason apparent to central bank watchers? A subtle subterfuge to reduce the perceived level of non-performing assets (NPAs) at Indian …