Dear Friends, The financial markets saw a substantial sell-off in risk assets today as all major US stock market indices closed down over 7%. Current market levels are roughly 1-2% away from levels that would signal a bear market (20% down from recent highs). The decline was so steep, market circuit breakers kicked in this …
With the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada largely behind us, and South Carolina tomorrow, the likelihood that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for president has grown. 538 now places this probability at 40%. We believe it is time to meaningfully engage with this possibility and consider what it would mean for the US …
This week has seen two precipitous declines in US stock markets. The volatility has been attributed to fears of the Coronavirus strain named COVID-19. This infectious disease has now spread to several countries and caused over 2700 deaths. The reports of confirmed cases have almost certainly been under-counted as numerous developing countries with weaker health systems lack the resources to …
In the last debate between Democratic presidential candidates, moderators challenged billionaire Tom Steyer on his commitment to combating climate change. Steyer made his fortune in the hedge-fund industry by investing in fossil fuel businesses among other things. He said this was before he fully understood the challenge posed by climate change and has since divested of …
Dear Friends, As we close the books on 2019, we wish you and your family the best for the upcoming year. 2019 was an unexpected year for investors. Despite pressures from trade wars and uncertain policy, stock markets bounced back from a rough close to 2018 and rose significantly (over 25% in the US). GDP …
Since 2020 marks the beginning of a new decade, we focus on themes we expect to play out over the next ten years. Emerging Markets continue to take over the world. Population growth and younger demographics in emerging markets will continue to drive growth through the 20s, as the population in developed market economies continues …
Bear Market Comes out of Hibernation. […] We contend this reversal gains steam this year as stocks globally will finish 2019 in firmly negative territory. […] – We were flat out wrong on this one. After being down 4.45% in 2018, total return on the S&P was an eye-watering 31.29% in calendar year 2019. The MSCI …
We trust you’ve all had a pleasant summer. As we head into autumn, the question on every investor’s mind seems to be when the longest running bull market in US history will end. For several quarters, we’ve advocated caution based on our view that equity valuations continue to be unreasonably high. We have, however, always …
Friends, We hope you’ve had a good start to the summer. The interest rate outlook has changed considerably since the beginning of the year. Investors entered 2019 with an expectation the Fed was likely to continue raising rates over the course of the year. However, recent comments from Fed officials have made rate hikes far …
Dear Friends, Spring is in the air. Subir’s younger daughter won’t step outside without checking to see what plants and trees have flowered. It is a special joy to be reminded of the resilience of life and the cycle of the seasons. Back in the more quotidian world of markets, Q1 saw US equities rally …
Dear Friends, We hope you’ve had a restful holiday season with family and a pleasant start to the New Year. The fourth quarter of 2018 saw steep declines in US stocks, with certain indices entering bear markets (20% below their highs). Amid these moves, the Federal Reserve followed through on broadly held expectations and raised …
2018 was an uneven year for our market predictions. We were right on six calls and wrong on four calls. While we were right about the general market direction, a few of our sector specific calls were off the mark. Slow But Steady Rate Rise: We expect the Fed to maintain the normalization plan and …
Friends, As we approach the end of an eventful 2018, there continues to be a steady torrent of major news stories dropping daily. From CEOs tweeting about taking their companies private, to escalating global trade wars, to bitter battles on Capitol Hill, the financial markets have had a lot to digest. Though the news can …
Dear Friends, Over the past year and a half, trying to absorb news has felt a bit like drinking water from a fire hose. Like many of you, we have steadily become more concerned and simultaneously more accustomed to the chaos being created by the current US administration. While the actions of our government have deviated from the …
As we noted in our 2017 year-end review, we expect 2018 to be a tough year for the domestic stock market. Rising interest rates and valuation concerns are going to be the major story for investors this year. Stock market valuations remain elevated, with the S&P 500 currently priced at 24 times last year’s earnings. …