Dear Friends, We trust you have been well and had a pleasant summer. The storms of the past month reminded us of the precariousness of life and the old quote from radio broadcaster Paul Harvey: “despite all our accomplishments, we owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact that it rains”. …
As we head into spring, we are reminded of new beginnings. Like most people of a certain age in the northern hemisphere, we have been pottering about in our gardens. Pulling out old growth and planting the new. It seems to us that the American economy has been in the throes of a decades-long process …
We hope you’ve enjoyed a restful holiday season and a wonderful start to 2024. The fourth quarter saw heavy volatility across nearly all asset classes as inflation and the Fed’s response continued to be the main driver of market direction. October began with long term interest rates continuing their upward trajectory as the “higher for …
We hope the end of summer and beginning of fall have been pleasant for you and those close to you. The third quarter saw the emergence of several market dislocations, driven primarily by the impact of rising interest rates on various parts of the economy. Long-term rates in the US jumped in Q3 and are now …
We hope you are having a pleasant start to summer. Over the past three months, financial market commentary has been driven largely by a focus on changes in interest rate policy and inflation data, with a sidebar on Generative AI (artificial intelligence). We believe interest rate and inflation dynamics will be the primary driving force …
Dear friends, The first quarter of 2023 was eventful, baffling and utterly predictable all at the same time. As with all manias, the bubble in crypto currencies finally burst last year and financial markets are seeing the repercussions. Unsurprisingly, the retrenchment in crypto currency prices exposed weaknesses and fraud. Crypto exchanges, service providers and investment …
Dear friends, We hope you’ve had a chance to spend some time with friends and family over the holidays. As we begin 2023, many investors are looking back at 2022 as a year they are more than happy to see come to a close. 2022 broke a multi-year streak of positive returns for equity markets …
Dear friends, The 3rd quarter saw the US markets continue to be dogged by persistently high inflation with levels not seen since the early 1980’s. The underlying cause is partly lingering supply chain issues with a large contribution (over 60%) coming from energy and auto-related costs. Some of the supply chain issues (which began cropping …
Dear friends, We hope you’re enjoying a pleasant summer with friends and family. As we enter the third quarter of 2022, we are reminded of Lenin’s words on the Russian Revolution: “there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen”. Events in the last three months have certainly fit into the latter category. …
Dear friends, The first three months of 2022 have been very eventful in global affairs. The concerns surrounding the global spread of the Omicron variant have faded and been replaced with the surprising invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces followed by the unexpectedly robust retaliatory economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU. As with …
Dear friends, We hope you and your family have enjoyed a restful holiday season and a good start to 2022. For investors, the new year comes with many continuing questions around trends in public health, government monetary policy and the rising cost of goods and services. Perhaps weighing most heavily on investors’ minds is the …
Dear friends, We hope you and your family have enjoyed a pleasant summer. The third quarter began with risk assets continuing their relentless march upwards as US stock indices touched all time highs at the end of August. September, however, saw a bit of a reversal as the S&P 500 fell by approximately 5% on …
Dear friends, We trust you and your family have stayed healthy and are enjoying the summer thus far. The second quarter saw major stock market indices maintain an almost uniformly upward trajectory. In our view, this expansion has been driven by three primary factors: 1. A recovery in business earnings 2. Accommodative fiscal policy 3. …
Dear friends, We hope this spring has brought you and your families a welcome respite from what was a hard, and isolating winter for many. As we look forward to the course of this year, most observers are cautiously optimistic that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will steadily fade. As the pace of vaccinations …
Dear Friends, In the new year, we had hoped to put behind us the volatile political situation that has afflicted our country for the past several years. Unfortunately, the events of the past week have dashed those hopes. A violent attack on Congress has shaken many of our institutions. A few years ago, it would …