Friends, The investment cycle in AI capacity continues to be the main story in equities markets. Though other parts of the US economy appear to be slowing, the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in data center capacity and GPUs is driving the market higher. The stock market has rewarded any corporate announcement of …
In the 1990s, policy analyst Joseph Overton proposed a theory that policy proposals were only viable if they were deemed acceptable by the mainstream of the population. Proposals that fell outside this range were deemed to be unlikely to succeed, and sit outside what was subsequently renamed the “Overton Window”. Political scientists and economists have …
Friends, Many years ago, Subir had a front row seat as his wife realigned the production of apparel and accessories across factories in Asia on behalf of a large retailer which is a household name. The aim was to achieve a saving of around 2% on duties and diversify production out of China. The business …
Dear Friends, We trust you and yours had a warm holiday season and a good start to the New Year. Sadly, we know some of our friends are dealing with the impact of the massive fires in Los Angeles over the past month. We know of several families in our extended network who have been …
Dear Friends, We trust you have been well and had a pleasant summer. The storms of the past month reminded us of the precariousness of life and the old quote from radio broadcaster Paul Harvey: “despite all our accomplishments, we owe our existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact that it rains”. …
Dear Friends, As we head into spring, we are reminded of new beginnings. Like most people of a certain age in the northern hemisphere, we have been pottering about in our gardens. Pulling out old growth and planting the new. It seems to us that the American economy has been in the throes of a …
Dear Friends, We hope you’ve enjoyed a restful holiday season and a wonderful start to 2024. The fourth quarter saw heavy volatility across nearly all asset classes as inflation and the Fed’s response continued to be the main driver of market direction. October began with long term interest rates continuing their upward trajectory as the …
Dear Friends, We hope the end of summer and beginning of fall have been pleasant for you and those close to you. The third quarter saw the emergence of several market dislocations, driven primarily by the impact of rising interest rates on various parts of the economy. Long-term rates in the US jumped in Q3 and …
Dear Friends, We hope you are having a pleasant start to summer. Over the past three months, financial market commentary has been driven largely by a focus on changes in interest rate policy and inflation data, with a sidebar on Generative AI (artificial intelligence). We believe interest rate and inflation dynamics will be the primary …
Dear friends, The first quarter of 2023 was eventful, baffling and utterly predictable all at the same time. As with all manias, the bubble in crypto currencies finally burst last year and financial markets are seeing the repercussions. Unsurprisingly, the retrenchment in crypto currency prices exposed weaknesses and fraud. Crypto exchanges, service providers and investment …
Dear Friends, We hope you’ve had a chance to spend some time with friends and family over the holidays. As we begin 2023, many investors are looking back at 2022 as a year they are more than happy to see come to a close. 2022 broke a multi-year streak of positive returns for equity markets …
Dear Friends, The 3rd quarter saw the US markets continue to be dogged by persistently high inflation with levels not seen since the early 1980’s. The underlying cause is partly lingering supply chain issues with a large contribution (over 60%) coming from energy and auto-related costs. Some of the supply chain issues (which began cropping …
Dear Friends, We hope you’re enjoying a pleasant summer with friends and family. As we enter the third quarter of 2022, we are reminded of Lenin’s words on the Russian Revolution: “there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen”. Events in the last three months have certainly fit into the latter category. …
Dear Friends, The first three months of 2022 have been very eventful in global affairs. The concerns surrounding the global spread of the Omicron variant have faded and been replaced with the surprising invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces followed by the unexpectedly robust retaliatory economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU. As with …
Dear friends, We hope you and your family have enjoyed a restful holiday season and a good start to 2022. For investors, the new year comes with many continuing questions around trends in public health, government monetary policy and the rising cost of goods and services. Perhaps weighing most heavily on investors’ minds is the …