Technology – Washington Square Capital Management

2019 Investment Themes: Bear Market Blues

By subir | January 10, 2019

Dear Friends,

We hope you’ve had a restful holiday season with family and a pleasant start to the New Year.

The fourth quarter of 2018 saw steep declines in US stocks, with certain indices entering bear markets (20% below their highs). Amid these moves, the Federal Reserve followed through on broadly held expectations and raised its benchmark Fed Funds rate to 2.5%. Taking a longer view, it’s clear the post 2000 era has been unusual. From 1962 to 2000, the Federal Reserve had never lowered rates below 2.5%. Since 2000, rates have remained below 2.5% for 15 of the last 18 years. Extremely low interest rates were made feasible by the near disappearance of inflationary pressure in the US. Prices for most manufactured goods have been kept low for over two decades as manufacturing was outsourced and large Asian populations were integrated into global industrial production. This multi-decade trend has allowed US and European central banks keep interest rates at historic lows without triggering inflation. Absent a dramatic reversal in global trade policy, we do believe this long-term trend will continue. In the near term, the Fed chairman has signaled two more interest rate hikes are expected in 2019 which would take the benchmark rate to 3%. We believe the Fed is more likely than not to follow through on these hikes, for two reasons:

1. Q4 saw unprecedented pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve to avoid a rate hike. This included rumors that the president had sought to dismiss chairman Powell in an attempt to influence interest policy. The White House does not have the authority to dismiss the chairman except for cause, and we believe the Fed will be keen to demonstrate its independence by following through on its previously broadcast intentions.
2. Fed governors are well aware that recessionary risks are high in 2019. If the Fed Funds peaked at 3%, the Fed would have more room to respond to a downturn using rate cuts alone. We believe Fed governors would prefer to use interest rates to respond to the next recession, rather than a revival of the unprecedented Quantitative Easing (QE) program put in place in 2008.

Normalized rates, trade disputes, a faltering Chinese economy, and concerns about asset valuations in a long-running US bull market combined to deliver a very volatile stock market in December. Stepping back to get a wider perspective, we are nearly ten years into an exceptionally long bull market. Several risks to economic growth materialized over 2018. Central banks globally have pulled back from the exceptional liquidity programs adopted after the financial crisis. These factors combine to create a less forgiving investment environment and makes a so-called soft-landing less likely. In our view, the underlying risks to the US and global economy advocate for continued caution on the part of investors. As always, long-term opportunities will present themselves in choppy markets and we intend to capitalize on them when they do.

We have enclosed our 2019 investment themes as well as a review of our 2018 themes. We hope to have an opportunity to discuss them with you in the near future.

Regards,

Subir Grewal, CFA, CFP Louis Berger

2019 Economic Themes: Return of the Bear

Bear Market Comes out of Hibernation. 2018 saw a major speed bump in the nearly 10 year global bull market run in stocks. We contend this reversal gains steam this year as stocks globally will finish 2019 in firmly negative territory. Trade wars, rising interest rates, inflated asset valuations, and a general slowdown in economic activity will contribute to a “risk-off” environment where investors prefer protection over speculation.
Peak Interest Rates. In December of 2015, after seven years of 0% interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve shifted course and slowly began to raise interest rates in 0.25% increments. At the start of 2019, the effective target rate stands at 2.25%-2.50%. While the Fed has signaled a continuation of rate hikes this year and into 2020, we think rates will peak in 2019 and the Fed will pause before potentially cutting rates if/when a recession materializes. We do not think the Fed will raise past 3% in this year.
Unemployment Rises. 2018 saw the US unemployment rate reach a 49-year low of 3.7%. The US economy has come a long way since unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. That said, this expansion cycle looks due for a reversal and we expect the unemployment rate will climb back over 4% in 2019.
Investors Want Value. Since 2009, US growth stocks have outperformed US value stocks in seven of those ten years (including three of the last four). We believe value will outperform growth this year as economic expansion slows and investors shift investment capital into more defensive sectors.

The Unwinnable War. Despite rhetoric from president Trump that trade wars are “easy to win” and a March 1 deadline to resolve the US/China trade dispute, we see no quick and easy resolution to this fiasco. We see 2019 ending with some measure of tariffs still in place, continued global hostility towards the Trump administration and ongoing damage to the US reputation and economy.
Real Estate Reckoning. 2018 saw residential real estate prices finally eclipse the peak reached before the credit crisis. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price index peaked in April 2006 and didn’t reach a bottom until March 2012. Since then, it has seen a nearly 7 year uninterrupted run-up of higher prices. We think this streak comes to an end in 2019 and the index will finish the year lower.
Oil Prices Flounder. After peaking at $86.07 on 10/4/18, Brent Crude oil prices tanked in Q4, finishing the year at $51.49 per barrel. While there may be a short term bounce in prices to start the year, we believe Brent Crude will dip below $50 per barrel and finish the year under that level as global trade slows and energy consumption slackens.
High Times for the Cannabis Industry. In recent years, marijuana has made a steady push into the mainstream as several US states and a few countries have passed legislation to legalize recreational consumption. A nascent industry has emerged to service this growing demand. Many of these companies are small, regional operators, but recently, larger and better-financed corporations have entered the space with many becoming publicly traded entities. While the road has been rocky and the sector has seen large price swings, we think this is an industry poised for long term growth. We expect 2019 will bring more legislation to expand the recreational market and more investments from multinational conglomerates (2018 saw Altria and Constellation Brands invest in the space). We expect publicly traded marijuana stocks will outperform consumer discretionary stocks in 2019.
China Stumbles. Over the course of 2018, we saw several worrying signs that the Chinese economy is slowing. Property prices, which have propped up all other assets for years have slowed, and there are numerous reports that several non-bank lenders have halted redemptions. The trade war with the US has also been a major drag on the economy. 2018 was a terrible year for Chinese stocks — the S&P China Composite index returned -27.82% — and while some investors expect a bounce-back year, we believe 2019 will continue to be a flat to negative market for Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite remains around 2,500. This is less than half the 5,178 level reached in 2015, which was lower than its all time high of 5,800 in 2007.
Battery Power. A long-term trend we are highlighting in our thinking for 2019 is the growth of plug-in electric vehicles. Roughly 2 million four wheel electric vehicles were sold in 2018. US sales of EVs represented over 1% of total vehicle sales. In California, the largest passenger vehicle market, EV were 4% of all vehicles sold spurred by tax incentives and emissions targets. When we include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, EV sales account for over 7% of all vehicle sales in California. These figures portend a long-term shift in the transportation industry, of the same degree as driverless cars. 10 years from now, we expect 25% of the world’s vehicle fleet to be battery powered. Over the long-term, this implies a very difficult environment for the oil and gas industry. We expect EV sales to continue to grow in 2019, and global liquid fuels growth to be below 1.3%.

Review of 2017 Themes: The Doldrums

By subir | January 5, 2018

2017 was an uneven year for our market predictions. We were right on five calls, half right on one call and wrong on four calls. Continued bullishness and investor support for the Trump administration (despite abysmal poll numbers) torpedoed three of our calls.

? Fed stays the course: We expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates as stated. We expect the Fed-Funds rate to rise above 1.5% over the course of 2017. The Fed started 2017 with a target interest rate of 0.50%-0.75% and finished the year with a target rate of 1.25%-1.50%. While the Fed raised rates, they met but did not exceed 1.50%, so we’re giving ourselves half a point on this one.
× Equities Caution: We continue to advocate for a cautious allocation to stocks and expect to see negative returns for US equities this year. We were dead wrong on this call as US equities continued their bull market run through year eight.
? Artificial Intelligence: We expect performance for companies providing intelligence features in devices to outpace the consumer durables index over the next three years, we will evaluate ourselves annually on this call. Artificial Intelligence-related companies had a very strong 2017 as the Global Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Index was up 57.62%. Comparatively, the S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary Index was up 17.13%.
? Continental shifts: Over the next several years, we expect Indian markets to outperform those in China and the developed world. We were right on year one of this call. The S&P BMI India Index was up 29.56% in 2017. This compares to 26.67% return for the S&P Greater China Index and 21.83% return for the S&P 500 Index.
× European upheavals: We believe European stocks to be more attractively priced than US equities…we expect European stocks to outperform US equities. While European stocks performed in-line with our expectations — S&P 350 Europe Index was up 10.75% on the year — the unexpectedly strong performance of US stocks (21.83% return for the S&P 500 Index) easily outperformed this total.
× Dollar strength continues: We expect the dollar to remain strong against major currencies worldwide. Despite rising interest rates, the USD weakened against a basket of international currencies in 2017.
? Drones are going to be delivering much more than bombs: We expect companies building these technologies to outperform the freight and shipping transportation companies. While we view this as a long term trend, 2017 saw drone-related companies outperform. The Solactive Robotics and Drones Index was up 38.7% while the S&P 500 Transportation Index was up 23.52%.
? Renewable Utilities: Though the incoming administration is not supportive of renewables, we think renewable utility companies or YieldCos will outperform conventional, fossil-fuel based utility stocks. YieldCos saw a strong rebound in 2017 and handily outperformed traditional utilities. The Global YieldCo Index saw returns of 22.87% while the S&P 1500 Utilities Index returned 12.16%.
? Retail Real-Estate: We expect real estate companies that own large portfolios of malls and brick and mortar stores to underperform other real estate investments. This prediction came to fruition as brick and mortar stores, and particularly malls, continued to see a decline in foot traffic and a loss of market share to online shopping in 2017. The FTSE NAREIT Regional Malls Index was -2.68% and the FTSE NAREIT Shopping Centers Index was -11.37%. Meanwhile, the FTSE NAREIT Composite was up 9.29%.
× Optimism about Trump presidency short-lived: We expect any investor-optimism surrounding the Trump presidency to evaporate rather quickly in 2017 as markets find he is unable to follow through on his lofty campaign promises. As we expected, President Trump has been unable to follow through on his campaign promises, and his approval ratings are among the lowest ever recorded for a first year presidency. However, a strong economy, robust corporate profits and the prospect of a tax cut allowed investors to shrug off his policy failures, chaotic management style and a criminal investigation to send equity markets to all-time highs.

2017 Themes: The Doldrums

By subir | January 25, 2017

Fed stays the course: We expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates as stated. We expect the Fed-Funds rate to rise above 1.5% over the course of 2017.

Equities Caution: We continue to be cautious on US equities, as we have been for the past several years. S&P 500 is priced at over 25 times last-year’s earnings. Even if we use projections that forecast a recovery in energy sector prices, P/E ratios are over 20. Rising rates erode support for outsized price-earnings ratios. We are also in the eighth year of a long bull market with a number of credit related issues in markets across the world. We continue to advocate for a cautious allocation to stocks and expect to see negative returns for US equities this year.

Artificial Intelligence: Technology continues to come at us hard and fast, but the groundwork has been around for decades. We recall using voice-recognition software to dictate texts almost 20 years ago. It was slow and cumbersome. Modern voice recognition is vastly improved by faster hardware and refined software. When coupled with the ability to search for information and issue instructions to connected devices, this technology can seem very much like science fiction, evoking both fears and dreams. Yet, asking Alexa to lower your blinds is in essence no different than using “the clapper” to turn on the lights. We expect this to be the year that voice activated instructions come to various devices, including cars and household appliances. Companies with effective voice activated solutions will find themselves partnering with manufacturers of all sorts of devices, not simply computer and phone makers. The revenue and earnings implications are less clear. Licensing fees may not amount to much and a large part of the value for technology companies may derive from sales of media and in Amazon’s case, all sorts of goods. We expect performance for companies providing intelligence features in devices to outpace the consumer durables index over the next three years, we will evaluate ourselves annually on this call.

Continental shifts: For much of human history Asia has been the center of the global economy. That changed in the centuries following the European industrial revolution and colonial expansion. Over the past thirty years, rapid growth in China has brought gross East/South Asian annual GDP (ex-Russia) to roughly 25 Trillion USD. This exceeds both that of North America and Europe/Central Asia, both around 20 Trillion USD. The big laggard in Asia has been India, where per capita GDP is 20% that of China. We expect India’s growth rate to exceed that of China’s for the next several years, with the relative difference in per capita GDP falling. Despite the numerous hurdles to doing business in India, we expect investors will begin to pay more attention to companies with exposure to India and an India related strategy. Over the next several years, we expect Indian markets to outperform those in China and the developed world.

European upheavals: This will be a busy year of European politics, there are major elections in France and Germany. Looming over it all is last year’s British decision to exit the Europe zone. Any or all of these have the capacity to inject more policy uncertainty and create market upheavals. Though we believe European stocks to be more attractively priced than US equities, these concerns give us pause. Nevertheless, we expect European stocks to outperform US equities.

Dollar strength continues: We expect the dollar to remain strong against major currencies worldwide. This impacts the returns dollar-based investors can expect to realize from foreign investments.

Drones are going to be delivering much more than bombs: Many of us have been concerned about the impact of automated weapons on conflicts across the world. This technology raises numerous difficult ethical questions, alongside legal dilemmas. Less attention has been paid to the revolution soon to overtake transport and delivery services of every form. Remote operations and autonomous guiding systems are approaching the point where not just driverless cars, but pilot-less planes, captain-less ships and person-less food delivery are about to become a reality. These technologies are going to create immense disruptions for various work-forces across the aviation, shipping and transport sectors. As with so many other technologies, the armaments industry has led the way. But the long-term impacts on our economy, politics and lives will be driven by the commercial applications of these technologies. We expect companies building these technologies to outperform the freight and shipping transportation companies.

Renewable Utilities: Though the incoming administration is not supportive of renewables, we think renewable utility companies or YieldCos will outperform conventional, fossil-fuel based utility stocks. Despite a high likelihood of loosening EPA standards, we think YieldCos benefit from a newer fleet of power plants and stock prices that haven’t recovered much from the energy crash of 2014/15.

Retail Real-Estate: We believe the retail real estate sector will come under pressure from rising interest rates and a secular shift towards online purchases. We expect real estate companies that own large portfolios of malls and brick and mortar stores to underperform other real estate investments.

Optimism about Trump presidency short-lived: We expect any investor-optimism surrounding the Trump presidency to evaporate rather quickly in 2017 as markets find he is unable to follow through on his lofty campaign promises.

Understanding the Risks of Crowdsourced Clean Energy Investing

By louis | September 22, 2014

Below is an article written by Louis about the recent trend in clean energy crowdfunding. It was first published by Green Tech Media and the original article can be found here.

For clean energy investors, Title III of the JOBS Act could change the game.

Prior to its implementation, investing in clean energy startups or small-scale utility projects has been a pursuit reserved mainly for venture capital and private equity firms investing on behalf of their institutional and high-net-worth clients. The barrier to entry into these funds is high, with six- to seven-figure minimum buy-ins typically the norm. But in a post-JOBS Act America, we’re entering a crowdfunding-inspired era where barriers to entry are crumbling.

Take Mosaic, for example, where an investor with as little as $25 and an internet connection can fund a portion of a solar project via an online investment platform.

Sounds great, right? Well, it is. But as with any other investment opportunity, putting money to work in crowdsourced clean energy projects comes with risks. And as crowdfunding gains in popularity and scope, these risks may be glossed over or simply ignored by an enthusiastic investing public eager to put their money where their eco-conscious mouth is.

So what are the risks, exactly?

Let’s take a closer look at Mosaic — not because its offering is especially risky (compared to other crowdsourced investment opportunities, it’s not), but because it’s currently the poster child for this new business model.

In a nutshell, Mosaic helps investors of any size lend money to small-scale solar projects in need of capital. As a result, the solar projects get financing, Mosaic is paid a fee, and investors earn interest on their loan. Think of it as Kickstarter meets Kiva for solar project financing.

Here’s Mosaic’s pitch, in the company’s own words, taken directly from its website: “Mosaic connects investors seeking steady, reliable returns to high-quality solar projects. To date, over $5.6 million has been invested through Mosaic and investors have received 100% on-time payments.”

Below this statement is a list of Mosaic’s projects (all of which have been fully funded) showing annual payments of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent. This number is net of Mosaic’s annual 1 percent management fee on loans that mature in five to twelve years.

Steady and reliable returns of 4.5 percent or more per year on your investment, plus pride in knowing your money is supporting a clean energy project. Sounds terrific. Everybody wins.

So what’s the catch? Is there a catch?

To answer this question, we have to take a closer look at Mosaic’s prospectus, a densely worded document that lays out the deal terms and accompanying risk factors in explicit detail. After all, the language found on the website is meant to sell prospective investors on Mosaic, not scare them away.

So, onto the prospectus, where on page 2 of the offering memorandum, in capital letters, we get this: “These are speculative securities. Investment in the notes involves significant risk. You should purchase these securities only if you can afford a complete loss of your investment.”

Speculative securities; significant risk; complete loss of your investment. Not quite the sunny language we found on the website. So what exactly are investors getting themselves into here?

It turns out these loans are not made directly to the solar project. Rather, they are funneled through an intermediary (Mosaic), which deploys capital to the projects on behalf of investors. So when an investor lends money to one of these projects, what they’re actually getting is an unsecured note issued by Solar Mosaic LLC, which is meant to “mirror the terms of the corresponding loan.” This is an important distinction, as certain bondholder rights are lost in this structure.

This leads us to the most important risk factor for investors to consider.

Default risk

What’s the risk that the issuer will fail and be unable to make interest payments or pay back your principal? Unlike bank CDs (insured by the FDIC), Treasury bonds (backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. federal government), or municipal bonds (which often carry third-party insurance), Mosaic notes are uninsured, unsecured corporate bonds.

The repayment of principal with interest hinges on the success of the solar project and its ability to generate the necessary cash flow. Because of the way these notes are structured, investors will have two entities to worry about: the borrower (solar project) and the issuer (Mosaic). If the solar project fails, the investor will not receive interest payments and risks losing the invested principal. If Mosaic goes bankrupt (even if the solar project is successful), the investor also may not receive interest payments and risks losing the principal.

Oh, and by the way, if things do go south, the investor “will not have any recourse to the borrower under the loan.” If the solar project fails, you’re relying on Mosaic to recoup your principal through litigation, and the investor “will not have any security interest in any of MSI’s (Mosaic Solar Investments) assets.” That means if Mosaic goes belly up, don’t expect its other assets to cover your losses.

Since the performance of each note is tied directly to the success of the individual solar project, the next factor to consider is credit risk.

Credit risk

How can you quantify which projects are in the best position to repay the loan? Remember, if the project fails, it’s the investor’s capital at risk, not Mosaic’s (although the company’s reputation would likely take a hit). Most publicly traded bonds carry a credit rating from one or more of the major ratings agencies like Moody’s, S&P or Fitch. While these ratings should not be considered gospel (just ask anyone invested in “AAA”-rated mortgage-backed securities in 2008), they can provide a useful marker to help investors gauge the default risk of the borrower.

While Mosaic is working with Standard & Poor’s via truSolar to develop a scoring system for solar bonds, there currently isn’t any third-party analysis of the credit quality of the borrowers. Investors can conduct some limited due diligence on their own, but most will be relying on the judgment of Mosaic’s underwriting team, which have only been at this since 2012. So while there may have been 100 percent on-time payments to date, this is based on a very limited track record.

Since the notes are only available on Mosaic’s platform, another factor to consider is liquidity.

Liquidity risk

What happens if you need access to your principal before the loan matures? With publicly traded bonds (treasuries, corporates, municipals), there’s a secondary market where investors can sell their bonds prior to maturity. With Mosaic’s notes, there is no secondary market. Also, there isn’t a mechanism in place for investors to redeem their notes prior to maturity. So if your note matures in twelve years, your money will be tied up for the duration. Think of it as a bank CD: you’ll be able to withdraw interest payments, but your principal is illiquid.

This lack of liquidity on a longer-term bond can expose investors to interest rate risk.

Interest rate risk

Right now, we’re living in a time of historically low interest rates. As anyone who holds money in a checking or savings account can tell you, yields on cash are virtually nonexistent. This is a result of the federal funds rate (the rate at which banks borrow money from each other) being set at essentially 0 percent. This impacts rates across all loans, keeping them low — until rates go up again.

And make no mistake, rates will rise. It’s not a question of if, but when and by how much. A twelve-year Mosaic note paying 5.5 percent per year may look great today, but if interest rates are substantially higher a few years from now, you’ll be stuck in an illiquid investment paying below-market rates.

In addition, there are a few other risks to consider.

Technology risk

Will the solar technology being used in this project still be viable twelve years from now? What happens if there’s a major breakthrough in panel performance that causes the panels used in your investment to become obsolete? Or what happens to the warranty on the solar panels if the manufacturer goes out of business?

Catastrophe risk

With climate change impacting weather patterns, what happens if a natural disaster (hurricane, tornado, flood) wipes out the solar farm you’re invested in? Mosaic requires borrowers to carry property insurance, but how would the lack of cash flow during repair work impact interest payments?

Do all these risk factors mean investors shouldn’t put money to work into Mosaic or other crowdsourced clean energy projects? Not necessarily. In fact, these types of investments can make a nice addition to a diversified portfolio. And Mosaic deserves a lot of credit for successfully building out this business model and proving it’s viable, not to mention wildly popular amongst clean energy investors.

However, just like any other investment opportunity, investors need to carefully consider all the risks involved prior to putting their money to work.

Buyer Beware: Has the SEC Uncovered a Green Con?

By louis | October 15, 2011

When UK-based CO2 Tech began trading in the public equity markets in 2007, they appeared to be an ambitious, forward-looking company poised to tackle global climate change head-on. According to one of their early press releases, they referred to themselves as a provider of cutting-edge, sophisticated anti-global warming technologies along with a full range of expert consulting, and environmental products and services to businesses, industries and governments. In another release, they touted proprietary carbon absorption software designed to streamline pollution abatement technology in which pollutants are removed from air by physical adsorption onto activated carbon grains.

These press releases often featured enthusiastic quotes from company CEO, Helga Schotten, who seemingly knew how to talk the talk when it came to credentialing CO2 Tech’s climate change expertise and boldly predicted that CO2 Tech would revolutionize the way the world does business when it came to reducing carbon emissions. Investors took notice.

The company began trading on January 25th, 2007 at $2 per share, with light volume: only 1200 shares traded hands. But the volume on the subsequent days spiked enormously – particularly for a small, relatively unknown company – peaking at 12,204,795 shares on January 30th. Curiously, despite this huge uptick in volume, the stock price quickly took a nose dive. After peaking at $7 on the second day of trading, by February 2th 2007, CO2 Tech was trading at $1.17 per share. By February 9th, 2007 it was down to $.40 per share. By May 2007 the share price had fallen below $.10 per share, never again to recover. It now trades at less than 1 penny per share.

So what exactly happened to the company that pioneered the cost-effective heavy duty evaporator unitâ€?

According to a complaint filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on February 18th 2011, CO2 Tech was nothing more than a sham company run by swindlers capitalizing on the climate change craze, generating more than $7 million in illicit profits from unknowing investors. The SEC claims CO2 Tech never had substantial operations, lied about their business relationships and expertise, and used off-shore entities to launder proceeds from the stock offering. It was a classic pump and dump scheme — promoters artificially inflated the company’s share price through false press releases (the pump) and then sold these overpriced shares to public investors at a profit (the dump), leaving these unsuspecting investors holding the bag.

Pump and dump schemes are fairly common in the risky world of penny stocks, where smaller, often illiquid companies trade on the Pink Sheets an electronic quotation system with minimal listing requirements. However, what makes this case unusual is the company in question specifically and quite brazenly targeted the SRI market. If the SEC charges are true, then the group behind this fraud used social responsibility as a means to attract and dupe investors.

What does this mean for the SRI investor?

Just because a company has issued shares and trades on an open market doesn’t necessarily make it a legitimate company with viable business prospects. Given the rapid growth in profile of socially responsible investments in recent years, there will undoubtedly be those individuals and entities looking to exploit this trend. As an SRI investor, it’s important to be vigilant not just for greenwashing, but, as alleged in this case, outright fraud. When it comes to investing in individual companies, particularly those that are smaller entities with limited financial filings available to the public, it is essential that proper due diligence is conducted before any money is invested. If you feel that you can’t conduct the necessary due diligence on your own and are still interested in investing, contact a professional advisor to help you.

Image Credit: fotdmike

This article first appeared on Just Means.

Category: Technology