Dear friends, We hope you and your family have enjoyed a pleasant summer. The third quarter began with risk assets continuing their relentless march upwards as US stock indices touched all time highs at the end of August. September, however, saw a bit of a reversal as the S&P 500 fell by approximately 5% on …
Dear Friends, We trust you and your family have stayed healthy and are enjoying the summer thus far. The second quarter saw major stock market indices maintain an almost uniformly upward trajectory. In our view, this expansion has been driven by three primary factors: Earnings of large American companies have indeed rebounded over the past …
Dear friends, We hope this spring has brought you and your families a welcome respite from what was a hard, and isolating winter for many. As we look forward to the course of this year, most observers are cautiously optimistic that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will steadily fade. As the pace of vaccinations …
Dear Friends, In the new year, we had hoped to put behind us the volatile political situation that has afflicted our country for the past several years. Unfortunately, the events of the past week have dashed those hopes. A violent attack on Congress has shaken many of our institutions. A few years ago, it would …
Dear Friends, As we reached the end of a year more tumultuous than most, we were reminded of the paramount importance of health. We trust you and your loved ones have remained healthy through the pandemic, and hope the new year will bring us all relief from the many challenges 2020 presented. In the new …
Dear Friends, The third quarter saw bond and equity markets remain at opposite extremes in response to continued difficult economic conditions. Bond markets are signaling a long recession ahead, with interest rates projected to remain below 1% for the next several years. Equity markets, in sharp contrast, are priced near all time highs, despite a …
Dear friends, We hope you and your family are all well. The third quarter saw bond and equity markets remain at opposite extremes in response to continued difficult economic conditions. Bond markets are signaling a long recession ahead, with interest rates projected to remain below 1% for the next several years. Equity markets, in sharp …
Friends, The past several months have been a very challenging time bringing dramatic changes to all our working and personal lives. We hope you and your family are safe and in good health. In the capital markets world, the past quarter has been nothing short of remarkable. In March, we saw the quickest descent into …
Dear friends, The past several months have been a very challenging time bringing dramatic changes to all our working and personal lives. We hope you and your family are safe and in good health. In the capital markets world, the past quarter has been nothing short of remarkable. In March, we saw the quickest descent …
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen — V.I. Lenin We hope you and your family are healthy and safe during this time. The past quarter in the markets has been one of those periods where days can seem like years, and weeks like decades. We entered 2020 with …
Dear friends, We hope you and your family are healthy and safe. The past quarter in the markets has been one of those periods where days can seem like years, and weeks like decades. We entered 2020 with risk assets, including stocks and high yield bonds, trading at all time highs. Stocks reached lofty valuations …
The demand shock created by the Coronavirus outbreak has already created historic levels of market volatility. Today, the market plunged after the Fed announced in a call on Sunday that it would cut rates to zero and implement buying programs for US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. During such periods of market volatility, we keep …
Friends, The last few weeks have been history-making for global stock markets, but today was especially notable. We’ll let a graphic for the US markets illustrate (see above). Today was the worst day for US stocks since 1987, when markets fell over 20%. But the point drops today are even more extreme. The Dow, a narrow index …
Dear Friends, The financial markets saw a substantial sell-off in risk assets today as all major US stock market indices closed down over 7%. Current market levels are roughly 1-2% away from levels that would signal a bear market (20% down from recent highs). The decline was so steep, market circuit breakers kicked in this …
With the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada largely behind us, and South Carolina tomorrow, the likelihood that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for president has grown. 538 now places this probability at 40%. We believe it is time to meaningfully engage with this possibility and consider what it would mean for the US …