Review of 2017 Themes: The Doldrums

2017 was an uneven year for our market predictions. We were right on five calls, half right on one call and wrong on four calls. Continued bullishness and investor support for the Trump administration (despite abysmal poll numbers) torpedoed three of our calls.

  1. ? Fed stays the course: We expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates as stated. We expect the Fed-Funds rate to rise above 1.5% over the course of 2017. The Fed started 2017 with a target interest rate of 0.50%-0.75% and finished the year with a target rate of 1.25%-1.50%. While the Fed raised rates, they met but did not exceed 1.50%, so we’re giving ourselves half a point on this one.
  2. × Equities Caution: We continue to advocate for a cautious allocation to stocks and expect to see negative returns for US equities this year. We were dead wrong on this call as US equities continued their bull market run through year eight.
  3. ? Artificial Intelligence: We expect performance for companies providing intelligence features in devices to outpace the consumer durables index over the next three years, we will evaluate ourselves annually on this call. Artificial Intelligence-related companies had a very strong 2017 as the Global Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Index was up 57.62%. Comparatively, the S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary Index was up 17.13%.
  4. ? Continental shifts: Over the next several years, we expect Indian markets to outperform those in China and the developed world. We were right on year one of this call. The S&P BMI India Index was up 29.56% in 2017. This compares to 26.67% return for the S&P Greater China Index and 21.83% return for the S&P 500 Index.
  5. × European upheavals: We believe European stocks to be more attractively priced than US equities…we expect European stocks to outperform US equities. While European stocks performed in-line with our expectations — S&P 350 Europe Index was up 10.75% on the year — the unexpectedly strong performance of US stocks (21.83% return for the S&P 500 Index) easily outperformed this total.
  6. × Dollar strength continues: We expect the dollar to remain strong against major currencies worldwide. Despite rising interest rates, the USD weakened against a basket of international currencies in 2017.
  7. ? Drones are going to be delivering much more than bombs: We expect companies building these technologies to outperform the freight and shipping transportation companies. While we view this as a long term trend, 2017 saw drone-related companies outperform. The Solactive Robotics and Drones Index was up 38.7% while the S&P 500 Transportation Index was up 23.52%.
  8. ? Renewable Utilities: Though the incoming administration is not supportive of renewables, we think renewable utility companies or YieldCos will outperform conventional, fossil-fuel based utility stocks. YieldCos saw a strong rebound in 2017 and handily outperformed traditional utilities. The Global YieldCo Index saw returns of 22.87% while the S&P 1500 Utilities Index returned 12.16%.
  9. ? Retail Real-Estate: We expect real estate companies that own large portfolios of malls and brick and mortar stores to underperform other real estate investments. This prediction came to fruition as brick and mortar stores, and particularly malls, continued to see a decline in foot traffic and a loss of market share to online shopping in 2017. The FTSE NAREIT Regional Malls Index was -2.68% and the FTSE NAREIT Shopping Centers Index was -11.37%. Meanwhile, the FTSE NAREIT Composite was up 9.29%.
  10. × Optimism about Trump presidency short-lived: We expect any investor-optimism surrounding the Trump presidency to evaporate rather quickly in 2017 as markets find he is unable to follow through on his lofty campaign promises. As we expected, President Trump has been unable to follow through on his campaign promises, and his approval ratings are among the lowest ever recorded for a first year presidency. However, a strong economy, robust corporate profits and the prospect of a tax cut allowed investors to shrug off his policy failures, chaotic management style and a criminal investigation to send equity markets to all-time highs.